Trump considers naming Yellen or Cohn to lead the Fed

Fed chair Janet Yellen struck a surprisingly dovish tone at recent Congressional testimony- Source Wikimedia Commons

Fed chair Janet Yellen struck a surprisingly dovish tone at recent Congressional testimony- Source Wikimedia Commons

However, we do expect the FOMC to take one more step toward the implementation of balance sheet normalization at this week's FOMC meeting by setting the stage for the beginning of balance sheet normalization "soon". The central bank has a 2 per cent target for this measure of inflation.

The market is not expecting an interest rate increase at the Fed's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday but it is looking for hints on the timing and extent of future moves. "I think she's done a good job", Mr Trump was quoted as saying. From a year earlier, the CPI was up 1.6 percent, the fourth month of surprising weakness.

The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon.

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Traders will be watching the Fed's latest policy meeting, which ends tomorrow, hoping for some guidance on its plans for raising interest rates. The 12-month rate of inflation in the Fed's preferred PCE price gauge slowed to 1.4% in May from a five-year high of 2.1% in February.

In June, Yellen and other officials sought to explain away the unwelcome slip in inflation as a result of such onetime factors as a plunge in consumer cellphone charges and a dip in prescription drug prices.

Earlier this month, Yellen nominated Randal Quarles, a top Treasury official under two Republican presidents, to be the Fed's vice chairman for supervision. "The chairwoman has at least acknowledged in passing that there might be something more afoot.I think that's what the market wants clarity on", said Ian Lyngen, head of US rate strategy at BMO.

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Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said he believes the Fed will act again by December, in part because of concerns that stock prices and other asset prices have been lifted too high by investors who have become too optimistic about how long the Fed will delay its tightening of credit. "It seems the market is not anticipating that and it would likely be a surprise to the market, and a hawkish surprise at that", he said. "I like her; I like her demeanor".

The weaker dollar will also have an important impact on financial conditions with the weak currency triggering a further net easing of conditions, especially as the weaker United States currency will tend to support he share prices of key U.S. companies.

The dollar has come under pressure from the euro on concerns about the future of Trump's economic agenda, a series of weak USA data - which have raised questions about future rate rises - and expectations the European Central Bank is about to start tightening policy. Historically, September and October are perilous months for markets, when the days begin to grow short and the problems that have built up in the economy are easier to see without the glare of the summer sun and the Hamptons hangover. He said he foresees three additional Fed rate increases next year.

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