France Condemns United States Over Iran Sanctions

An Iranian woman walks past a mural on the wall of the former US embassy in the Iranian capital Tehran

An Iranian woman walks past a mural on the wall of the former US embassy in the Iranian capital Tehran

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced he was pulling out of a landmark deal curbing Iran's nuclear program and reintroducing sanctions on the Islamic republic and those who trade with it. That has stoked fears of shortfalls given the continuing declines in Venezuelan oil production and growing geopolitical risks to oil supplied by Libya, Nigeria, and elsewhere. At least some of that oil will now be pulled from the market - at a time when oil prices are already rising because of production cuts by OPEC and Russian Federation as well as instability in Venezuela. The typical family will spend about $200 more this summer driving season, according to the Oil Price Information Service.

The USA will doubtless re-impose sanctions in opposition to Iran after 180 days, until another settlement is reached. There is no one who will realistically choose Iran over the US,” said energy consultancy FGE.

The president's decision to renew sanctions against Iran, a major oil producer, could land on the shoulders of American drivers. Instead of discussing an extension of production cuts, the organization will be discussing plans to replace Iranian oil on the market and thus increase their oil output. These risks, including the re-imposition of oil sanctions against Iran and the upcoming results of May elections in Venezuela, may materialize into actions that remove oil supplies from the global market and, in turn, tighten global oil balances. Another positive is that a persistent rise in the price of crude oil would be a gift to central bankers and make their wishes for higher inflation come true.

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Even though WTI is a domestic crude benchmark and Brent is an worldwide benchmark, gasoline prices in the United States tend to follow Brent.

"Around a million barrels of oil a day is likely to disappear from global oil markets if the USA sanctions on Iran bite", said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

But what will the economic impact be on Iran and its trading partners?

The sanctions will have an impact on other industries too.

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EIA estimated that global oil inventories fell an average of almost 0.6 million barrels per day in each of the past five quarters (January 2017 through March 2018).

Saudi Arabia, for instance, has the ability to crank up output.

"Foreign ministers aim to reassure Tehran that the nuclear deal is salvageable at a meeting now slated for Monday in London which they are expecting their Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif to attend", the newspaper said. On Tuesday, the EIA raised its forecast for USA output in its monthly report to 12-million bpd late next year.

The US government has said that exemptions for those dealing with Iran are possible, although it has not yet given any details about which companies could benefit. New pipelines are in the works, but won't be ready until later next year.

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